Joe Biden is going to coast unless Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders lock down the left


FILE PHOTO: Former Vice President Joe Biden laughs as Senator Bernie Sanders speaks at the 2020 Democratic campaign debate at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles, California, U.S., December 19, 2019. REUTERS/Mike Blake/File Photo

The debate on Tuesday is the last before the Iowa caucus, and while Sen. Bernie Sanders and Sen. Elizabeth Warren sparred with each other, frontrunner Joe Biden was fairly unscathed.
Overall, more people like Warren and Sanders than are satisfied with Biden.
However, they’re splitting the votes. If the Iowa caucus resembles the Iowa debate, they’re going to have a rough time.
That’s not neccessarily terrible for them — the delegates get split evenly, and can be directed to support some other candidate later down the line — but it imperils their ability to take down the frontrunner.
Warren and Sanders need either an undisputed winner or peace. A prolonged fight hands Biden the win.
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The final debate prior to the Iowa caucus included seven candidates, but just three commanded the majority of the attention, frontrunners Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders.

While Biden has been the frontrunner for months, he escaped fairly unscathed from the contest, even considerin the critiques of his record regarding the onset of the Iraq War.

Warren and Sanders were not so lucky.

Not only did they endure the typical critiques from Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Amy Klobuchar — each of whom best appeal to less liberal wings of the party — but the debate also involved an extended dispute between the Massachusetts and Vermont senators on the big story of the week: Sanders reportedly questioning a woman’s ability to win the White House.

The inciting incident isn’t really important here. What matters is that a confrontation between Warren and Sanders was basically inevitable.

Insider has been conducting a recurring SurveyMonkey Audience national poll since December 2018. You can download every poll here, down to the individual respondent data.

Looking at the past seven polls, Warren and Sanders have an overlapping fanbase that all but guarantees a fight. Thirty percent of Democrats like both of them, and 30% on top of either’s banked support is enough to become the nominee.

But even more, here’s where they stand in comparison to the frontrunner. Of the 2,963 Democratic voter respondents to the seven polls:

1,340 (45%) would be satisfied with Biden as the nominee
1,404 (47%) would be satisfied with Warren as the nominee
1,400 (47%) would be satisfied with Sanders as nominee


Obviously, there are lots of other candidates muddling the picture, but we’re also able …read more

Source:: Business Insider

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