Boeing’s outlook for the commercial aviation market goes up, up and away

Randy Tinseth

Randy Tinseth, Boeing Commercial Airplanes’ vice president of marketing, presents Boeing’s Current Market Outlook at the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance’s Commercial Aerospace Conference in Lynnwood, Wash. (GeekWire Photo / Alan Boyle)

LYNNWOOD, Wash. — You don’t need a crystal ball to tell that Boeing and commercial aviation are riding an updraft — but it’s handy to have someone around to explain the whys and wherefores.

Boeing Commercial Airplanes’ man for the job is Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing, who provides a 20-year forecast for the global economy, travel trends and the resulting demand for airplanes in an annually updated report called the Current Market Outlook.

Today Tinseth laid out the latest Current Market Outlook here at the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance’s Commercial Aerospace Conference.

Among the top trends:

World economic growth is projected to average a healthy 2.8 percent per year, pointing to 4 percent average annual growth in airline passengers, 4.2 percent growth in cargo traffic and 4.7 percent in passenger traffic.
That suggests the world’s airlines will need 41,030 airplanes over the next 20 years, valued at $6.1 trillion. A little less than half will be replacements, and a little more than half will be needed to handle increasing demand.
Half of the air traffic growth will be in the Asia-Pacific region. “Every year in Asia, another Atlanta is added,” said Tinseth, referring to passenger traffic at the busiest U.S. airport.
Although the market for airplane sales is big, the projected market for aviation services is bigger: $8.5 trillion over 20 years. Boeing Global Services was created as a new business unit in 2016 to grab a bigger share of that market.
For the year 2018, Boeing projects higher than average growth in the world’s economies (3.2 percent) and in passenger air traffic (more than 6 percent).

Tinseth said the world’s airlines carried an estimated 4.3 billion passengers last year. “Twenty years from now, we expect that to be in excess of 9 billion travelers,” he said.

“So every year as we do the forecast, we have to ask ourselves, not only will we meet the demand moving forward, but will the infrastructure around the world be there?” he said. “Will we be able to train and have enough pilots? Will airports be built as we expect?”

Boeing is working to keep on top of the wave, with the first 737 MAX 9 and the first 787-10 Dreamliner due to be delivered during 2018. Production …read more

Source:: GeekWire

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